How do you figure that out? Well, it's pretty easy to get an estimate. The question I spent the last couple of days looking at, is: how does the overall variation break down into the five parts? That is, which of the five types is most important? It wasn't that hard to figure out I'm not sure why I didn't do it years ago.įirst, the "career years" thing. If my logic is right, those five calculations cover all the binomial luck, and none of them overlap (that is, no luck is counted twice). That usually happens when a team scores more runs in high-leverage situations in terms of game outcome - such as, for instance, with the score tied in the ninth inning. In other words, it could beat its Pythagorean projection (or, alternatively, the "10 runs equals a win" rule of thumb). The team could win more (or fewer) games than expected from the number of runs it scored and allowed.
That usually happens if the team hits better (or worse) than expected in high-leverage situations in terms of runs scoring - such as, for instance, bases loaded and two outs.ĥ. In other words, it could beat its Runs Created (or Linear Weights, or Base Runs) estimate. The team could score more (or fewer) runs than expected from its composite batting line. The team's pitchers could do the same (that is, the opposing team's batters could have "career years").ģ. The team's hitters could have better or worse performances than their talent expectation - that is, "career years" in either direction - in terms of their basic batting line.Ģ. The way I see it, you can break it up into five mutually-exclusive observations (as I described in a previous post):ġ. Using the rule of thumb that 95% of observations are within two standard deviations of the mean, you can figure that, around one time in 20, that team will win 94 or more games, or fewer than 68, just by luck alone.
You can calculate that the distribution of wins should follow a normal distribution, with a mean of 81, and a standard deviation of 6.36. But that will vary - sometimes it'll win fewer, and sometimes it'll win more. 500 baseball team, and flip it 162 times, you should expect it to come up "win" 81 times.
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